Box office preview: 'Machete' and 'Going the Distance' go head-to-head over Labor Day weekend

Summer may not technically end until Sept. 22, but as far as Hollywood is concerned, Labor Day weekend marks the official end of the summer movie season — and usually, it goes out with a whimper. Only two movies that have opened over the Labor Day holiday (2007’s Halloween remake, and 2005’s Transporter 2) have grossed over $20 million for the four-day weekend; most films are lucky to make half that. Coupled with Hurricane Earl bearing down on the East Coast, this weekend’s major debuts — Going the Distance, Machete, and The American (which opened Wednesday) — have their work cut out for them. Your regular box office prognosticator Nicole Sperling is on vacation, so here’s how I see the weekend shaping up over the next four days.

1. Machete: $15 million

The 2007 exploitation double feature Grindhouse, which featured a faux-trailer for a rousing revenge thriller called Machete, grossed only $11.6 million over its three-day debut. Normally, that wouldn’t be a promising precedent for director Robert Rodriguez’s feature-length version of Machete, especially since star Danny Trejo (pictured) usually plays supporting roles in, well, low-budget exploitation thrillers. But if Machete, which will open in 2,669 locations, can edge past Grindhouse’s three-day gross — and early tracking seems to suggest it will — then I think it could push to a healthy $15 million through Labor Day. Expect competition from The Expendables and Takers, however, to keep the gross from going much higher.

2. Going the Distance: $14.5 million

It’s true that Drew Barrymore’s co-star in Going the Distance, the always charming Justin Long, has had his share of luck over Labor Day weekend: The 2001 horror flick Jeepers Creepers, his first starring role, opened to $15.8 million, then a Labor Day weekend record. But since then Long’s been more of a winning supporting player (and Mac spokesperson) than a romantic leading man. And Barrymore’s movies tend to open in the $10 million to $14 million range when they don’t boast a co-star who’s a sure-fire box office draw. Given the lack of female-friendly competition, though, I reckon Going the Distance could give Machete a run for its money.

3. Takers: $12.5 million

Thanks in part to the lousy weather on the Atlantic Coast, I expect a roughly 50 percent drop for last weekend’s by-a-nose champ, which would put its three-day total around $10.25 million, its four-day gross at around $12.5 million, and its total cume approaching $39 million. Not bad for a movie that sat on the shelf for roughly a year.

4. The American: $10.5 million


Like Barrymore, George Clooney is a bona fide movie star whose wide opening weekends nonetheless remain stuck in the $10 million to $14 million range (when “Ocean’s” isn’t in the title, anyway). His latest film, a lean European thriller that’s won mostly mild critical praise, indeed opened on Wednesday to a mild $1.7 million in 2,721 theaters. I figure the film will struggle to make it to eight figures for the four-day weekend, with a six-day total edging toward $14 million.

5. The Last Exorcism: $8 million


Horror movies historically have significant drop-offs in their second weekend, and the horrific word-of-mouth on this movie — especially its ending — points to a truly blood-chilling 60 to 70 percent box office plunge, putting its four-day gross close to $8 million and its cume nearing $33 million.

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